With COP29 now underway in Baku, Razom We Stand has released a new report, “Bridging the Gap Between Peace and Climate Action: An Assessment of the Potential Climate Impact of Sanctions on Russian Oil & Gas Exports”. The document calls for more robust, targeted sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector to advance global climate goals and disrupt the funding of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It highlights that effective sanctions on Russian fossil fuels would reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and strike at the economic core that sustains Russia’s military operations.

This research underlines the climate and security risks posed by Russia’s energy sector, which generates nearly 78% of the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contributes almost half of the federal revenue. By cutting into Russia’s oil and gas exports, the report argues, sanctions could lead to a 25% reduction in Russia’s upstream GHG emissions by 2030 and curb emissions by as much as 300 million tons of CO₂ annually if renewable energy sources replace Russian energy across Europe and Asia.

Key findings from the report include:

• The Dual Impact of Russian Fossil Fuel Sanctions: Russia’s energy sector accounts for the majority of its GHG emissions and nearly half of its federal revenue. Targeting these exports would significantly cut emissions while reducing the resources funding Russia’s military activities.
• Resilience and Expansion in Russian Fossil Fuels: Despite existing sanctions, Russia has maintained its fossil fuel exports through Arctic drilling facilities, an extensive pipeline network, and growth in Asian markets. However, this expansion comes with severe climate consequences, as liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects like Yamal and Arctic LNG 2 contribute heavily to methane leaks and flaring, which exacerbate global warming.
• Scenario Modeling for Russian Exports: The report models three potential futures for Russian fossil fuel exports: a high-export scenario under the current government strategy, a baseline business-as-usual case, and a “realistic” scenario with strengthened sanctions. In the third scenario, projected emissions reductions are substantial, with 300 million tons of CO₂ annually offset if Russia’s supply is replaced by renewables.

The new report also emphasizes the challenges of tracking Russia’s emissions due to opaque data and limited environmental oversight, particularly as Russia ramps up gas exports to China. It underscores the need for an international system to transparently monitor emissions and reduce the environmental impact of Russian energy exports.