The European Union’s failure to agree on an oil price cap ahead of the 15 July deadline risks handing the Kremlin an unnecessary financial windfall at a time when Ukraine urgently needs stronger, not weaker, economic pressure on the aggressor.
EU foreign ministers and ambassadors have so far failed to reach an agreement on approving an oil price cap, which is currently at $44.10 per barrel. Unless a deal is secured by tomorrow, the cap will automatically reset upwards, potentially rising to around $58 per barrel due to the recent increase in global oil prices. With Russian Urals crude currently trading at approximately $55 per barrel, the result would be a deeply perverse outcome: a sanctions mechanism designed to limit Kremlin revenues would instead accommodate higher prices and allow Russia to earn more from its oil exports.
At a Foreign Affairs Council on July 13th High Representative Kaja Kallas said of the price cap at a press conference, “Our aim is to have an agreement. If we don’t have an agreement, then we start to work on Plan B. But right now, we work on Plan A for Wednesday.”
Razom We Stand has consistently warned that the oil price cap mechanism remains fundamentally flawed because it ties sanctions to volatile global market conditions rather than to the strategic objective of reducing Russia’s fossil fuel revenues. The current crisis demonstrates exactly why the mechanism is inadequate. A temporary spike in global oil prices, driven to a large extent by tensions in the Middle East, should not automatically translate into higher revenues for the Kremlin.
Dr. Svitlana Romanko, Executive Director and Founder of Razom We Stand said of the situation, “Commercial interests cannot keep outweighing the security of Europe. The EU should lower the price cap to $20 and strictly enforce it, together with the G7 partners. Freezing the price cap at $44.10 is just the bare minimum. The choice can be put simply: either Europe freezes or lowers the current oil price cap or it rewards Russia with higher revenues.”
This comes days after Ukraine has entered new levels of accession talks to become an EU member following the Third Accession Conference, where the 27 agreed to open two new chapters.
The EU and G7 should immediately adopt a static minimum oil price cap, lowering the current level of $44.10 per barrel to $20 per barrel. The EU should also implement a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian seaborne fossil fuel shipments. Lowering the cap would prevent an upward revision during a period of market volatility and ensure that sanctions continue to constrain, rather than boost, Russian export earnings.
More broadly, the latest negotiations expose the growing influence of commercial interests over Europe’s sanctions policy. It is deeply troubling that some member states, including Greece, Cyprus and Malta, have reportedly pushed for a higher or more flexible cap to protect their maritime industry despite Russia’s ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Five years into Russia’s war against a European nation, such positions are unprecedented and risk undermining the credibility and effectiveness of the EU’s sanctions regime.
Greece’s blockage of the oil price cap over concerns for its tanker fleet plays into the politics of discoordination among member states that benefits the Kremlin. Recent reporting has shown that Greek shipping companies have earned at least $3.8 billion transporting Russian oil since 2023, while the Greek government has repeatedly resisted efforts to strengthen the oil price cap. At a time when Europe should be closing loopholes that finance the Kremlin’s war, Athens appears more focused on protecting shipping profits than supporting stronger measures for peace and accountability.
The EU still has a narrow window to act before the deadline. Ambassadors meeting today must ensure that the cap gets lowered and commit to moving beyond a mechanism that has failed to significantly reduce Russia’s fossil fuel revenues. Europe cannot allow sanctions intended to weaken the Kremlin to become a tool that increases its earnings. The objective must remain clear: cut Russia’s fossil fuel income, close existing loopholes, and finally adopt and implement a full maritime services ban on Russian fossil fuel exports.
